Tom Brady is the GOAT

4 minute read · Issue Number 55 · February 12th, 2021

Feb 12, 2021

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Dear champion,

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you probably know by now that Brady and the Bucs won the COVID season’s Super Bowl.

It’s Brady’s SEVENTH championship and FIFTH Super Bowl MVP. The 43-year-old stud is an absolute beast.

Ironically, back in March 2020, I wrote a short piece about the Buccaneers’ choice to sign Brady in the offseason last year, but I never published it.

I found it this week. And knowing what the outcome of the Bucs choice was, reading it gave me chills. Therefore, I’d love to share it with you.

I hope you enjoy it!

Was Tom Brady a good pickup for the Bucs?

Written: March 2020.

Shortly after the Super-Bowl in Miami, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers broke the news by announcing 42-year-old QB Tom Brady as their new QB during the offseason.

The 6-time Super Bowl champion has some gas left in the tank and is unwilling to walk away just yet. During last season, there was speculation around his retirement.

Statistically, Brady has not been at his best lately, and this is why everyone is wondering if Tampa cashed in on the right target, having Jameis Winston as their quarterback.

How can we know if Tom Brady is a better investment than Jameis Winston?

The value of a quarterback

Simple statistical analysis has proven in recent years that the average yards gained per pass are around 70% higher than the average yards gained per run.

Given such superiority, it is evident that passing the ball is way more efficient than running it.

It’s why teams started to focus on their passing game by closely choosing the QB commanding their offensive weapons.

In 2019, Winston was number one in the league in passing yards, as he threw for 5109 yards and was second in touchdowns thrown with 33. On the other hand, Tom Brady only threw for 4057 yards and 24 TDs.

However, the Pats clinched a playoff spot with a 12-4 record, while the Buccaneers clinched a couch spot to watch the playoffs from home with a 7-9 record.

Why would the Bucs change to Brady if Winston is delivering competitive numbers?

The initial sample of 2019 could trick us into thinking that Winston is superior because in 2019, the Buccaneers threw on 58% of the offensive plays, and the Pats threw on 56% of the offensive plays.

To standardize the results, we need a larger sample, and we will only consider statistics that do not rely on totals (i.e., ratios & averages).

From 2015 until today, Brady has been better in almost every relevant stat:

Brady’s completion rate of 64.9% surpasses Winston’s 61.3%.
Tom threw for 280.4 yards per game on average, which is well over Jameis’s average of 274.1.
Tom threw for more touchdowns (2.0 vs. 1.7) and fewer interceptions (0.5 vs. 1.2) per game than Jameis since he’s been in the league.

Any team’s success or the team’s scoring potential does not have a perfect correlation with the QB’s performance on the field. Still, such a player’s impact contributes the highest percent amongst individual players to the team’s final scoring outcome.

Besides that, the quarterback represents a strong symbol of leadership to the team and will undoubtedly impact other team players’ performance.

Furthermore, the experience is a relevant factor, and especially in decisive situations. Brady has been in the league for 20 years, while Winston has only been around since 2015.

Besides enhancing the QB rating from 86.9 to 97, substituting Jameis with Brady decreases the interception probability by 50%; this could bring significant improvements to the Bucs’ defensive pace.

Given Brady’s age, we could consider Brady a high-risk / high-reward type of investment. Tampa signed a significantly better quarterback on the field, and his presence, leadership, and influence on his teammates could be the factors needed to carry the team forward.

Considering that Tampa Bay has some of the best wide receiving groups in the league, we could be looking at a team with the potential to make a Super Bowl run in the upcoming 2020 season.

The 2021 Takeaway

Never underestimate the power of leadership, experience, talent, and hard work.

The Bucs gamble paid off. Brady is the GOAT, and I can’t wait to see him back in action next year.

QUICKIES

🎙 Building the Future of Youth Sports; In this week's episode, I chat with Sameer Ahuja – COO of GameChanger — about their impact in different communities across the US and how their business shifted during the COVID pandemic. We also discussed topics surrounding finance, technology, risk, bitcoin, and more. Listen on Apple | Spotify | Google.

📉 2021 Super Bowl nets lowest rating since 2007; While generally being down in viewership, Super Bowl LV was the most live-streamed NFL game ever, averaging 5.7 million digital viewers per minute, up 65% on the 2020 edition.

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